Contents

Developing a Fire-Risk Reliability Model for Power Distribution Systems Using RBI Methods

Author(s): A. M. Affif1, Alan March1, Yulesta Putra1
1 Faculty of Architecture, Building, and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia
A. M. Affif
Faculty of Architecture, Building, and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia
Alan March
Faculty of Architecture, Building, and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia
Yulesta Putra
Faculty of Architecture, Building, and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia

Abstract

This study enhances fire-risk identification for power distribution systems by applying risk-based inspection (RBI) principles to develop a reliability-oriented fire-risk model and to translate assessment results into a targeted fire detection plan for the evaluated assets. Fire occurrence probability for distribution lines is characterized through five key parameters, which are mapped to standardized probability levels to determine the likelihood category for each line. Fire consequence severity is described using six parameters and classified according to predefined consequence-level criteria. A fire-risk matrix is then used to integrate likelihood and consequence to evaluate overall fire-risk reliability across the distribution system. In a case study of a specific substation, the proposed RBI-based assessment identified three high-risk items, and corresponding prevention and control measures were recommended to support corrective actions and risk reduction.

Keywords: RBI, distribution system, risk matrix, reliability model
Copyright © 2025 A. M. Affif, Alan March, Yulesta Putra. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.